On Fox today father Jonathan puts in his two cents. Here is my assessment of his assessment....

Here are my reasons for believing the race will be closer than these polls indicate:

1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.

2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?

3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.

So there you have my November 3rd take.

And if I’m right and the vote is close in 2008, when the Democratic Party has every political reason to wipe out the Republicans, it will mean our country rejects major elements of Senator Obama’s plan to revolutionize important American values, beginning with the right to life. Then the Democratic Party may see the benefit of freeing itself from the stranglehold of the culture of death, forced upon it by extreme, and extremely powerful, interest groups. What a relief it would be for “Values Voters” to have a viable alternative to the very imperfect Republican Party.

And what is your November 3rd prediction?

God bless,

Father Jonathan

Point #1

His professional sources are people he listens to. Most people surround themselves with, and associate with people of similar views. I'm no exception, I generally read progressive shit online. Some find it difficult to pin me down however, because I like to play devil's advocate, and point to alternative views, even if they are not my own. Anyway, back to Father J., he surrounds himself with his peeps, those that wouldn't dream of walking out of their doors without their facade, who wouldn't admit how they really feel to anyone, let alone Jonathan, because they are too apprehensive about how others will judge. He is touting the hoped for 'Bradley effect'. I admit this is a possibility, and I wouldn't be surprised because I think Americans are more racist than is assumed from the facade we present to the world. This guy doesn't think a black man should be president, period. He would never admit it, but it is the only reason to bring up this reasoning.

Point #2

Here he is practicing what he's done all his life, pinning his hopes on a blind faith. I will guess it will fail him this time, and of course in the end.

Point #3

He is misguided here. Again, he believes most Americans see things as he does, because he surrounds himself with people that wouldn't dream of voicing an alternative view. He believes his 'values' are mainstream. Abortion, traditional marriage, limited government. He is wrong, period.

I'm not saying the polls have not been skewed, I'm just saying his assessment is based on the same thing which he chooses to live by, wishful thinking.

Time to go vote.